As I have already previewed the men's draw for the US Open in a previous post, it's time to preview the women's draw, which myself, and many experts agree is wide open for 2011. Defending champion Kim Clijsters is out of the tournament with an injury and top seeded Caroline Wozniacki of Denmark had been bounced in her first match at 2 tournaments prior to winning in New Haven today for the fourth straight year.
Women's Draw
Top 4 Seeds:
1. Caroline Wozniacki (DEN)
2. Vera Zvonareva (RUS)
3. Maria Sharapova (RUS)
4. Victoria Azarenka (BLR)
Others to Watch:
5. Petra Kvitova (RUS)
14. Dominika Cibulkova (SVK)
28. Serena Williams (USA)
Favorite:
???
Wozniacki is coming off a win at the Yale Open in New Haven, CT today, which should mean she has a fair bit of momentum heading into the US Open. However, not sure that is really the case since she has won New Haven the past three years and is still looking for her first major title. Caroline is likely the best defensive player on the WTA Tour presently, however, her lack of a major serving weapon or go-to ground stroke has been her downfall as she encounters the Sharapovas and Williamses late in major championships. Her draw for the Open is good for her, in my opinion, to make the Round of 16 with relative ease. In that round, she has the potential to face a previous US Open winner in 15th seed Svetlana Kuznetsova of Russia, who's experience I think can give Wozniacki all she can handle. While I do believe Caroline will win that match and make the semifinals of the Open, going through 6-seed Li Na in the quarterfinals, I would not be at all surprised if Svetlana won that match.
In the bottom half of Wozniacki's half of the draw is the 4-seed, Victoria Azarenka. Unfortunately for her, she was the unlucky person to be the highest seed in the same section of the draw with Serena Williams, who was given a 28 seed, even though she has won 2 hard court tournaments since returning to the circuit from injury and won the US Open Series as a result of those 2 tournament wins. The USTA chose not to bump Serena's seed up to the top 8 from her WTA ranking, even though they have the direction to do so and Serena is a three-time US Open champion and hard court is her best surface; where her powerful serve is even more amplified. Also in Azarenka's draw is 7-seed, and 2010 French Open champion, Francesca Schiavone of France and former world #1 in Serbia's Jelena Jankovic. I fully expect a Round of 32 Williams/Azarenka matchup and I do expect Serena to come out on top of that one and ultimately go through Shahar Peer of Israel and and Schiavone on her way to a semifinal matchup with Wozniacki.
On the other side of the bracket is 3rd seeded Maria Sharapova, fresh off an ugly win in the finals of Cincinnati 2 weeks ago against Jankovic. With Sharapova as the only woman of the top 4 seeds to have a grand slam title (3 in total), one would think she might be considered the favorite in this tournament. While I certainly feel that way, I think she has a very difficult draw, with a potential quarterfinal matchup against fellow Russian Kvitova, who defeated Maria in the Wimbledon final a few short weeks ago for her first grand slam title. Maria should be able to advance to the Round of 16, but a potential date with 12-seed Agnieszka Radwanska of Poland or 13th seeded Peng Shuai of China could pose a roadblock, especially if Sharapova piles up the double faults and unforced errors, as was the case in the Cincinnati final. Ultimately, I think Maria is fully back and will be able to limit the double faults to a reasonable amount to exact revenge on Kvitova in the quarters and reach the US Open semifinals again.
Opposite of Sharapova's draw is where you'll find 2nd seeded Zvonareva as the highest seeded player. Vera is still looking for her first major title as well and I just can't see her getting it in this year's US Open either. She is not particularly strong on the hard courts and the depth of the other women included in her draw is quite strong, including 9-seed Sam Stosur of Australia and 14th seeded Cibulkova, who has been quickly rising up the rankings over the past year. Additionally, an unseeded Venus Williams can be found in this section and one can never count out a Williams sister, even though Venus hasn't had a particularly great season thus far. While I don't expect Venus to make as deep a run in the tournament as her sister, I wouldn't be especially surprised if she made the 3rd round, or even the Round of 16 to face Cibulkova. I can see Cibulkova being a breakout star in this year's tournament and I really like her to take out Zvonareva in the quarterfinals and advance from this part of the draw to the semis.
My Picks:
Semifinals -
Wozniacki vs. S. Williams
Sharapova vs. Cibulkova
Finals -
Wozniacki vs. Sharapova
Champion -
Maria Sharapova
Sharapova has been knocking on the door of a grand slam title this season, with deep runs at the French Open and Wimbledon in the past few months. With hard courts being her best surface, I think it's time for her to finally get the job done and add to her three career grand slam titles. But with a field this wide open, I also wouldn't be shocked to see none of my picks even make the semifinals, much less win the whole thing. The unpredictability of this year's women's field is going to make the 2011 US Open one of the best in recent memory in my opinion.
Roger Federer