Wednesday, May 25, 2011

The Deron Williams Theory

The Nets made a huge splash prior to the deadline, sneaking in and grabbing All Star point guard Deron Williams from the Jazz. Thing is there is no way that Deron stays with the Nets after next season (if there is a season). I don't care about any of the reports that he is close with King and that he is helping decide which players to bring in. The fact of the matter is Dwight Howard will not come to the Nets via trade next year unless he 'Melos it and forces his way there and I just don't see that happening. The Magic can get more back from the Bulls, Lakers and even the Knicks. Yes some of the potential trades require the Magic to take on brittle knees, but something is better then nothing.

Which team will end up with the Team USA PG?
This trade will end up making one of the worst trades ever articles and setting the Nets back a few years. The Nets gave up Derrick Favors, who I disagree with many and feel his upside isn't quite as high but he could be a solid rotation player, the number 3 pick in this years draft, which will likely be Derrick Williams, Brandon Knight or Enes Kanter. All three of those could be really good players to help build in Brooklyn. A Favors/Lopez/Knight team could be one that makes the playoffs in a few years.

Oh and don't forget they gave up another one next year.

So where does that leave the Nets? Just think Denver Nuggets, with less drama and you wouldn't have to hear quotes about it on Sports Center after every game, more likely only two or three updates a day on ESPN Insider Rumors, with nothing to back them but a random tweet form a sports writer, usually somewhere within the lower 48.

The Nets will have to trade Deron Williams, as much as it will hurt Mikhail Prokhorov's ego to admit he was wrong, there is no way they can sit idly and watch him walk away like Cleveland did with King James and Toronto did with Baby Bosh.

So Deron is on the market, who calls?

Glad you asked! I think there will be quite a few teams that would be in on the mix, and actually I think these teams would have discussed a trade with Utah this last season had they known he was available. Still can't believe Utah didn't shoot a text over to the Clippers and ask what they'd give up.

Would Kevin Durant drool over getting to play with Dwill? A point guard that can create, score when needed and doesn't think he is DRose with half the skill and a worse shot selection (Yes I'm talking to you Westbrook) and, ironically, wouldn't Westbrook fit well in New Jersey when he'd be the star of his team? (I can't believe I just called him a star). Wouldn't it make sense for the Thunder to throw Westbrook and a few other players at New Jersey for Deron? Westbrook, Nate Robinson and Nick Collison's atrocious contract and a 1st for Deron and Travis Outlaw? ESPN Trade Machine tells me this works number wise. I think it makes total sense for both teams as well, Westbrook is likely the single best player that the Nets could come away with, and in New Jersey he wouldn't be tearing out Durantula's heart with every shot. Additionally, Westbrook gives the Nets a player they can get away with calling a star.

Atlanta Hawks SF, Marvin Williams
Would Atlanta finally admit their obvious mistake of taking Marvin Williams over both Deron and Chris Paul? Could he be the missing link that makes Joe Johnson worth that unbelievable contract he got last year? Honestly I don't think anyone could do that, but Deron has a better chance then Kirk Hinrich does. I mean really? The Hawks consider themselves one of the best teams in the East and Hinrich starts at point? Alright back to Deron, The Hawks could give up a package including Josh Smith and Marvin Williams plus picks and/or Pape Sy and Jeff Teague? Trade Machine tells me the numbers work on this one as well. I can't see why the Hawks wouldn't want to put their faith in Deron, he would likely be the best point to ever wear their uniform and if any player can get that jumbled mess going I'd put my money on Deron. For the Nets they get Smith who is a great defender and could help, Williams is a solid player at the three and Sy/Teague and draft picks could be useful considering New Jersey traded their picks away.

We all know that they want Dwight Howard, but after making a poor head coaching decision maybe the Lakers would realize the best way to keep Kobe healthy is to have someone else set him up and handle the ball? No they prolly won't, but they could offer a decent package. Bynum could be shipped with draft picks and Luke Walton (because I hate him) or maybe Ron Artest or Lamar Odom, actually I like that trade a lot, let's get the Kardashian's all in New Jersey. Wouldn't Lamar love to play with Kris? Just think we could have a new show! But Deron makes almost too much sense for the Lakers not to pursue. This trade makes a lot of sense if the Nets feel they have a cure for Bynum. Even more, if the Nets wanted to get tricky they could try to finagle something like this, wouldn't every Lakers fan love to see Gasol go, only to find out that Lopez is more of a girl than Pau could ever try to be? Deron gives the Lakers something they have lacked for quite some time, a point that can set Kobe up, thing is they would have to break up their team even more then other teams to try and get him because I don't think the Nets would want anything to do with Odom or Artest (and rightful so, unless Prokhorov is planning on having games where he needs the stands rushed in Brooklyn and who knows, maybe he is?). For the Nets it could get them Gasol, who would be a worthwhile addition to the team, although I'm not sure he could last in Brooklyn.

And here is one of my kickers, we all know that Conley played well enough to get the Griz a few wins in the postseason, but wouldn't Deron fit really well in Memphis? I think so. The Griz have enough pieces that they could make a solid offer, although obviously lacking star power. They could rid themselves of Conley's contract, although the asking price would likely include Rudy Gay. The trade is interesting as the Griz give up three starters, but overall I think it improves both the Griz and the Nets, Gay would be a good player for the Nets and Williams would have a better supporting cast then he has ever played with.

And what about the team that I truly feel that Deron will end up with? Yup you heard me right, the LA Clippers!

Doesn't it make too much sense? So much sense that not even David Kahn, let alone Donald Sterling couldn't mess up?

This trade basically means that the Clips would have to do the same thing they did when they paid the Cavs to take Baron Davis, destroy their draft for the next few years. This would likely take at least two first rounders to get it done. But seriously, is there a better point guard to pair with Blake? C'mon don't kid yourselves, there isn't.

What about this? Kaman, Bledsoe and Aminu (plus picks) for Deron. Is it star studded? Absolutely not, but it has two players who I think could be good players given the right chance in Bledsoe and Aminu and gives the Nets, basically, the two picks they traded away for Deron (in Aminu and Bledsoe) along with two future 1sts and a solid big man in Kaman.

LA is really the only destination I could see Deron forcing himself to, his summer home is in San Diego and LA is a big market, they have talent and Deron would have the best team around him he ever has. But do the Blakers have enough to land him? If it becomes a bidding war I don't think so.

One more team I think needs to be mentioned and that is the Trail Blazers. With Roy's worse-knees-in-the-league-behind-only-teammate-Oden's the team really needs to address the point position if they want to contend.The problem is that Roy's trade value rivals Bynum's. The trade would have to revolve around Wallace and draft picks to make sense. But a combo of Aldridge and Williams could be a title contender, especially if Roy can regain some former self and give them 20-25 minutes of that a game, I think, like Kobe, getting the ball out of Roy's hands would only benefit him. If the trade revolved around Wallace, Oden and a player like Babbit and a few firsts, I think we could have a solid offer for the Nets here. (replace Miller with Oden) Oden could still be a good player if managed properly (and if he gets away from the Portland curse) and Wallace is a good scorer who would fit well in New Jersey.

And lastly, can you ever count out Cuban? Absolutely not! Wouldn't Deron fit in well with Dirk, save Kidd some wear on his knees? Again this is a trade that lacks star power but could pay off on a well managed and coached team. Trade Machine wouldn't let me do this trade with JJ Barea, But if you put together a deal of Jason Terry, Rodrigue Beaubois and Barea and a few picks for DWill straight up I think you have a trade that could really help each team. Deron and Drik would be a fearsome duo, especially have Marion, Kidd and Chandler as secondary players.

Here's what we know, Deron being with the Nets is only slightly more believable then the rapture we all just lived through on Sunday. Could it happen? Yeah sure, a 'getting Dwight miracle could have huge ramifications for Deron and the Nets, but I just don't see it happening. When this is all said and done I think we're going to end up with one big pseudo three team trade that took place over the course of a year and whoever ends up with DWill ends up coming out on top by a hair.  Could things change if the next CBA is ever signed? Sure but I don't see the Nets keeping Deron, and I still believe the Jazz made a bad choice by trading him away.